Simulator
Change the statewide vote
Statewide first preferences
Where preferences go
One seat under this scenario
Primary vote
Instant-runoff count
Likely winner by district click a seat to see it below
Victoria
Melbourne
Seats
Data
How preferences flow
Preference flows
Seats
All seats
Polls
Polling and the statewide vote
First-preference polls
The model’s poll average
All polls
Methodology
How the forecast is built
A. Follow one seat through the model
B. Calibration
Model notes
What changed, and when
About